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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.